UK Foot and Mouth disease: a systemic risk assessment of existing controls

This article details a systemic analysis of the controls in place and possible interventions available to further reduce the risk of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United Kingdom. Using a research-based network analysis tool, we identify vulnerabilities within the multibarrier control system and their corresponding critical control points (CCPs). CCPs represent opportunities for active intervention that produce the greatest improvement to United Kingdom's resilience to future FMD outbreaks. Using an adapted ‘features, events, and processes’ (FEPs) methodology and network analysis, our results suggest that movements of animals and goods associated with legal activities significantly influence the system's behavior due to their higher frequency and ability to combine and create scenarios of exposure similar in origin to the U.K. FMD outbreaks of 1967/8 and 2001. The systemic risk assessment highlights areas outside of disease control that are relevant to disease spread. Further, it proves to be a powerful tool for demonstrating the need for implementing disease controls that have not previously been part of the system

A commentary on recent water safety initiatives in the context of water utility risk management.

Over the last decade, suppliers of drinking water have recognised the limitations of relying solely on end-product monitoring to ensure safe water quality and have sought to reinforce their approach by adopting preventative strategies where risks are proactively identified, assessed and managed. This is leading to the development of water safety plans; structured ‘route maps’ for managing risks to water supply, from catchment to consumer taps. This paper reviews the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) procedure on which many water safety plans are based and considers its appropriateness in the context of drinking water risk management. We examine water safety plans in a broad context, looking at a variety of monitoring, optimisation and risk management initiatives that can be taken to improve drinking water safety. These are cross-compared using a simple framework that facilitates an integrated approach to water safety. Finally, we look at how risk management practices are being integrated across water companies and how this is likely to affect the future development of water safety p

Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms

A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action

Risk management for drinking water safety in low and middle income countries: cultural influences on water safety plan (WSP) implementation in urban water utilities

We investigated cultural influences on the implementation of water safety plans (WSPs) using case studies from WSP pilots in India, Uganda and Jamaica. A comprehensive thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews (n = 150 utility customers, n = 32 WSP ‘implementers’ and n = 9 WSP ‘promoters’), field observations and related documents revealed 12 cultural themes, offered as ‘enabling’, ‘limiting’, or ‘neutral’, that influence WSP implementation in urban water utilities to varying extents. Aspects such as a ‘deliver first, safety later’ mind set; supply system knowledge management and storage practices; and non-compliance are deemed influential. Emergent themes of cultural influence (ET1 to ET12) are discussed by reference to the risk management, development studies and institutional culture literatures; by reference to their positive, negative or neutral influence on WSP implementation. The results have implications for the utility endorsement of WSPs, for the impact of organisational cultures on WSP implementation; for the scale-up of pilot studies; and they support repeated calls from practitioner communities for cultural attentiveness during WSP design. Findings on organisational cultures mirror those from utilities in higher income nations implementing WSPs – leadership, advocacy among promoters and customers (not just implementers) and purposeful knowledge management are critical to WSP success

The impact of regulation, ownership and business culture on managing corporate risk within the water industry

Although the specifics of water utility ownership, regulation and management culture have been explored in terms of their impact on economic and customer value, there has been little meaningful engagement with their influence on the risk environment and risk management. Using a literature review as the primary source of information, this paper maps the existing knowledge base onto two critical questions: what are the particular features of regulation, ownership and management culture which influence the risk dynamic, and what are the implications of these relationships in the context of ambitions for resilient organizations? In addressing these queries, the paper considers the mindful choices and adjustments a utility must make to its risk management strategy to manage strategic tensions between efficiency, risk and resilience. The conclusions note a gap in understanding of the drivers required for a paradigm shift within the water sector from a re-active to a pro-active risk management culture. A proposed model of the tensions between reactive risk management and pro-active, adaptive risk management provides a compelling case for measured risk management approaches which are informed by an appreciation of regulation, ownership and business culture. Such approaches will support water authorities in meeting corporate aspirations to become "high reliability" services while retaining the capacity to out-perform financial and service level targets

Estimating fugitive bioaerosol releases from static compost windrows: feasibility of portable wind tunnel approach

An assessment of the fugitive release of bioaerosols from static compost piles was conducted at a green waste composting facility in South East England; this representing the initial stage of a programme of research into the influence of process parameters on bioaerosol emission flux. Wind tunnel experiments conducted on the surface of static windrows generated specific bioaerosol emission rates (SBER2s) at ground level of between 13 - 22 x10 3 cfu/m 2 /s for mesophilic actinomycetes and between 8 - 11 x10 3 cfu/m 2 /s for Aspergillus fumigatus. Air dispersion modelling of these emissions using the SCREEN3 air dispersion model in area source term mode was used to generate source depletion curves downwind of the facility for comparative purposes

Better by design: Business preferences for environmental regulatory reform

We present the preferences for environmental regulatory reform expressed by 30 UK businesses and industry bodies from 5 sectors. While five strongly preferred voluntary regulation, seven expressed doubts about its effectiveness, and 18 expressed no general preference between instrument types. Voluntary approaches were valued for flexibility and lower burdens, but direct regulation offered stability and a level playing field. Respondents sought regulatory frameworks that: are coherent; balance clarity, prescription and flexibility; are enabled by positive regulatory relationships; administratively efficient; targeted according to risk magnitude and character; evidence-based and that deliver long-term market stability for regulatees. Anticipated differences in performance between types of instrument can be undermined by poor implementation. Results underline the need for policy makers and regulators to tailor an effective mix of instruments for a given sector, and to overcome analytical, institutional and political barriers to greater coherence, to better coordinate existing instruments and tackle new environmental challenges as they emerge

Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks-heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm

We summarise our recent efforts on the policy level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below

Confluence and contours: reflexive management of environmental risk

Government institutions have responsibilities to distribute risk management funds meaningfully and to be accountable for their choices. We took a macro-level sociological approach to understanding the role of government in managing environmental risks, and insights from micro-level psychology to examine individual-level risk-related perceptions and beliefs. Survey data from 2,068 U.K. citizens showed that lay people's funding preferences were associated positively with beliefs about responsibility and trust, yet associations with perception varied depending on risk type. Moreover, there were risk-specific differences in the funding preferences of the lay sample and 29 policymakers. A laboratory-based study of 109 participants examined funding allocation in more detail through iterative presentation of expert information. Quantitative and qualitative data revealed a meso-level framework comprising three types of decisionmakers who varied in their willingness to change funding allocation preferences following expert information: adaptors, responders, and resistors. This research highlights the relevance of integrated theoretical approaches to understanding the policy process, and the benefits of reflexive dialogue to managing environmental risks.Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs, EPSRC, NERC, ESR

Recent developments in the application of risk analysis to waste technologies.

The European waste sector is undergoing a period of unprecedented change driven by business consolidation, new legislation and heightened public and government scrutiny. One feature is the transition of the sector towards a process industry with increased pre-treatment of wastes prior to the disposal of residues and the co-location of technologies at single sites, often also for resource recovery and residuals management. Waste technologies such as in-vessel composting, the thermal treatment of clinical waste, the stabilisation of hazardous wastes, biomass gasification, sludge combustion and the use of wastes as fuel, present operators and regulators with new challenges as to their safe and environmentally responsible operation. A second feature of recent change is an increased regulatory emphasis on public and ecosystem health and the need for assessments of risk to and from waste installations. Public confidence in waste management, secured in part through enforcement of the planning and permitting regimes and sound operational performance, is central to establishing the infrastructure of new waste technologies. Well-informed risk management plays a critical role. We discuss recent developments in risk analysis within the sector and the future needs of risk analysis that are required to respond to the new waste and resource management agenda